EnergyOutlook2020edition3bpEnergyOutlook:2020edition2TheEnergyOutlookexplorestheforcesshapingtheglobalenergytransitionoutto2050andthekeyuncertaintiessurroundingthattransitionTheEnergyOutlookconsidersanumberofdifferentscenarios.Thesescenariosarenotpredictionsofwhatislikelytohappenorwhatbpwouldliketohappen.Rathertheyexplorethepossibleimplicationsofdifferentjudgementsandassumptionsconcerningthenatureoftheenergytransition.Thescenariosarebasedonexistinganddevelopingtechnologieswhichareknownabouttodayanddonotconsiderthepossibilityofentirelyneworunknowntechnologiesemerging.MuchoftheanalysisintheOutlookisfocussedaroundthreescenarios:Rapid,NetZeroandBusiness-as-usual.Themultitudeofuncertaintiesmeansthattheprobabilityofanyoneofthesescenariosmaterializingexactlyasdescribedisnegligible.Moreover,thethreescenariosdonotprovideacomprehensivedescriptionofallpossibleoutcomes.However,thescenariosdospanawiderangeofpossibleoutcomesandsomighthelptoinformajudgementabouttheuncertaintysurroundingenergymarketsoutto2050.TheEnergyOutlookisproducedtoinformbp’sanalysisandstrategyandispublishedasacontributiontothewiderdebate.ButtheOutlookisonlyonesourceamongmanywhenconsideringthefutureofglobalenergymarketsandbpconsidersawiderangeofotheranalysisandinformationwhenformingitslong-termstrategy.5bpEnergyOutlook:2020edition4InFebruaryofthisyear,bpannouncedanewpurpose–toreimagineenergyforpeopleandourplanet.Thispurposewassupportedbyanewambition,tobeanet-zerocompanyby2050orsoonerandtohelpgettheworldtonetzero.Ournewpurposeandambitionareunderpinnedbyfourfundamentaljudgementsaboutthefuture.Thattheworldisonanunsustainablepathanditscarbonbudgetisrunningout.Thatenergymarketswillundergolastingchange,shiftingtowardsrenewableandotherformsofzero-orlow-carbonenergy.Thatdemandforoilandgaswillbeincreasinglychallenged.Andthat,alongsidemanyothers,bpcancontributetotheenergytransitionthattheworldwantsandneeds,andcreatevaluedoingso.InAugust,wesetoutanewstrategyinsupportofthispurposeandambition.Itwillseebptransformfroma...

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